Hosni Mubarak - Hoisted by his own petard

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak has gone on the air to announce reforms, a shuffling of puppets in his government, and to declare that he will not resign.

pictured: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak

He did so in response to the sea of Egyptians who took to the streets of Cairo, Alexandria, and scores of other cities across the nation of the Nile, over their discontent with his 30+ years of nearly dictatorial rule over the most populous Arab nation.

Mubarak's reign, the third longest in Egyptian history, might not have faced this popular revolution, were it not for his horrible mismanagement as head of state.

From the moment he stepped in to fill Anwar Sadat's shoes, his presidency was guided by fear of Muslim extremists, financial difficulty, and a population who sought to improve their relatively poor standards of living.

Of course, one can not blame all of Egypt's problems on Hosni Mubarak. After all, presidents -- even those who sit in power unfairly and for far too long -- are not the whole of a country. On the other hand, he is responsible for increasing the nepotism, corruption, and dishonest ways of his government's rule over the people of Egypt, during the last three decades.

Had Mubarak invested in political evolution, national infrastructure, education, healthcare, and increasing the standard of living of average Egyptians, he could have remained in office, without any such mass discontent and riots in the streets of Cairo. Instead, Hosni Mubarak invested in his army, his dictatorship, his way of maintaining the status quo.

To be sure, he has held a strong line against the Islamic extremists. However, he has done so at the expense of his nation's well-being. By making them the bogeyman, Mubarak has kept the middle class impotent, and has firmly resisted any real, legitimate political opposition, by even the most moderate of political actors in Egypt.

To his credit, President Mubarak has also maintained the peace with Israel, and at times even been helpful in trying to advance the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. Yet, he has always done so in a most calculating way, playing up the part of diplomat to the Western world, while playing up anti-Israel propaganda on state run Egyptian television and media, in an effort to demonstrate his sympathy for the Palestinians and giving the air of being a man of the people. In other words, he has used the unique position which Egypt enjoys to bolster his presidency, rather than to actually achieve further gains for peace in the Middle East.

If Mubarak wishes to survive politically, he must enact sweeping reforms, starting with human rights, democracy, freedom of expression, and investing in Egypt's infrastructure; roads, tunnels, bridges, hospitals, universities, high schools, elementary schools, agriculture, hi-tech, and other needs of a modern country. He must also open up elections and have them be free, open, accountable and fair.

Naturally, it goes against his massive ego to do any such thing. Mubarak will likely cling to power as long as he can, making gestures and speeches and trying to quell the protests using the Army and all forces at his disposal. That is the nature of despots -- even those who call themselves President.

Mubarak really should have read the tea-leaves in Tunisia better. His obtuseness and love of self so distorted his perception of his own people's anger towards his unjust rule, that he is now the popular symbol of the ills which plague Egypt, and nothing he does (including his fondness for dyeing his hair jet black) is likely to save him from a dishonorable exit. Nothing, that is, except resigning.

I'll bet a big pita that he won't resign. Rather, he will be forced out.

The situation will then leave a political vacuum. Who will take over once the current regime is out? Will it be the Muslim Brotherhood? Former IAEA Head Mohamad El-Baradei? I'm sure even George W. Bush would prefer that annoying bureaucrat to run the government in Cairo over the Islamist movement.

Time will let all the poisons slip out. Until then, and until the next ruler of the Nile ascends the political pyramids of Egypt, it's an interesting time in the history of the cradle of civilization.