Top Ten Reasons Why Egypt will not be the next Iran

Pictured: Anti-Mubarak protesters in Tahrir Square, Friday, February 12, 2011.

10) Egypt does not want to lose its $1.5 Billion per year in foreign aid from the United States.
9) Egypt does not want to endanger the wellbeing of its own people, risking the recovery of $3.6 Billion from Mubarak assets held in Swiss coffers (or the $40 - $70 Billion suspected total of Mubarak's family assets).
8) Egypt wants to feed its own people. They will get the assistance they seek from allies, notably the United States, as long as they remain peaceful and on a path to institutionalized democracy.
7) Egypt can not afford to risk a conflict with its neighbors, especially Israel.
6) Egypt's revolutionaries used mostly peaceful tactics to remove Mubarak from power.
5) Egypt's people did not fight the army.
4) Egypt's army did not fight against the Egyptian people.
3) The revolutionaries did not march a religious leader to power by force. Aside from the religious factions, the only veils Egyptians like to see are the ones worn by belly dancers.
2) Egyptians are all demanding what everyone wants: Greater freedom, respect for human rights, peace and democracy. That, of course, includes uninterrupted Internet and Telecom services.

... and the number 1 reason why Egypt will not be the next Iran:

1) Egypt wishes to remain a Tourist hot spot. ($11 Billion in annual revenues can't be bad).

When the Man Comes Around

Mubarak stepped down. After appearing thick and not cognizant of reality following his last speech on Thursday night, Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak has left office. Power to the People.

Egypt is enjoying their Berlin Wall moment. Theirs, Tahrir Square, Liberation Square, is emblematic of the peaceful nature of this historical, peaceful, democratic revolution.

Let it be remembered that when the arms went up in Cairo, they did so without charging the halls of power. They promised peace as the path to democracy, and they delivered a revolution peacefully. They are the proud people of Egypt.

Yes, there were scuffles, fights, even some shootings. All of this does not change the fact that most of the violence was orchestrated or stirred up by the powers that be. The people who stood up for freedom and democracy drove their efforts without active malice. For that, they are to be commended.

Let their peaceful, democratic path lead them to a brighter, freer tomorrow.

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Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9IfHDi-2EA&feature=fvsr - When the Man Comes Around (Johnny Cash)

Mubarak will leave. Date TBD...

Unhelpful fools making Egypt situation worse

Muslims against Mubarak use Anti-Semitic propaganda to advance Islamist cause

pictured: Malaysian protester outside the Egyptian embassy in Kuala Lumpur

Israel's government has wisely stated that the peace accords between Egypt and Israel are in the interests of both countries, and that the 30+ years of the peace have benefited both nations.

Unfortunately, Israel also spoke too strongly in defense of the Mubarak regime, which, like it or not, is an authoritarian government, which has maintained power through unjust practices.

Yes, Hosni Mubarak has helped to maintain the status quo in the region, and even gone after terrorists who wish to destabilize the Middle East, and fundamentalist Islamists who wish to impose Sharia Law over Egypt. All the same, he is an unpopular ruler who has prevented any real democracy from taking hold in his own nation. On top of that, the World Bank has reported that 40% of Egyptians live in poverty ($2 a day or less) and are uneducated, and Mubarak has done little to help improve that situation.

Now the protests are gaining international support in places like Malaysia and in other Muslim communities around the world. The problem with that is the supporters of the protests will start to become more fundamentalist as the popular revolt grows, and they will support more fanatic opposition groups like the Muslim Brotherhood to replace the Mubarak regime, leaving moderate opponents like Mohamad El-Baradei dangling by the wayside, and ultimately politically incapable of taking charge to establish a better Egypt.

If the Egyptians wish to attain a better situation, it would be in their interest to:

a) Recognize and support the more moderate voices of opposition, and

b) Maintain the peace with Israel, and

c) Keep the region stable with a strong and peaceful political platform.

As for Israel, the government in Jerusalem should voice support for any peaceful government the people of Egypt choose, and especially one that maintains the Camp David Peace Accords of 1978. Aside from that, Israel should stay out of the way, diplomatically, and not interfere with the crisis in Cairo. Any public position that prefers one side over the other will ultimately hurt Israel, as Islamists will use it to criticize the peace accords.

Hosni Mubarak - Hoisted by his own petard

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak has gone on the air to announce reforms, a shuffling of puppets in his government, and to declare that he will not resign.

pictured: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak

He did so in response to the sea of Egyptians who took to the streets of Cairo, Alexandria, and scores of other cities across the nation of the Nile, over their discontent with his 30+ years of nearly dictatorial rule over the most populous Arab nation.

Mubarak's reign, the third longest in Egyptian history, might not have faced this popular revolution, were it not for his horrible mismanagement as head of state.

From the moment he stepped in to fill Anwar Sadat's shoes, his presidency was guided by fear of Muslim extremists, financial difficulty, and a population who sought to improve their relatively poor standards of living.

Of course, one can not blame all of Egypt's problems on Hosni Mubarak. After all, presidents -- even those who sit in power unfairly and for far too long -- are not the whole of a country. On the other hand, he is responsible for increasing the nepotism, corruption, and dishonest ways of his government's rule over the people of Egypt, during the last three decades.

Had Mubarak invested in political evolution, national infrastructure, education, healthcare, and increasing the standard of living of average Egyptians, he could have remained in office, without any such mass discontent and riots in the streets of Cairo. Instead, Hosni Mubarak invested in his army, his dictatorship, his way of maintaining the status quo.

To be sure, he has held a strong line against the Islamic extremists. However, he has done so at the expense of his nation's well-being. By making them the bogeyman, Mubarak has kept the middle class impotent, and has firmly resisted any real, legitimate political opposition, by even the most moderate of political actors in Egypt.

To his credit, President Mubarak has also maintained the peace with Israel, and at times even been helpful in trying to advance the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. Yet, he has always done so in a most calculating way, playing up the part of diplomat to the Western world, while playing up anti-Israel propaganda on state run Egyptian television and media, in an effort to demonstrate his sympathy for the Palestinians and giving the air of being a man of the people. In other words, he has used the unique position which Egypt enjoys to bolster his presidency, rather than to actually achieve further gains for peace in the Middle East.

If Mubarak wishes to survive politically, he must enact sweeping reforms, starting with human rights, democracy, freedom of expression, and investing in Egypt's infrastructure; roads, tunnels, bridges, hospitals, universities, high schools, elementary schools, agriculture, hi-tech, and other needs of a modern country. He must also open up elections and have them be free, open, accountable and fair.

Naturally, it goes against his massive ego to do any such thing. Mubarak will likely cling to power as long as he can, making gestures and speeches and trying to quell the protests using the Army and all forces at his disposal. That is the nature of despots -- even those who call themselves President.

Mubarak really should have read the tea-leaves in Tunisia better. His obtuseness and love of self so distorted his perception of his own people's anger towards his unjust rule, that he is now the popular symbol of the ills which plague Egypt, and nothing he does (including his fondness for dyeing his hair jet black) is likely to save him from a dishonorable exit. Nothing, that is, except resigning.

I'll bet a big pita that he won't resign. Rather, he will be forced out.

The situation will then leave a political vacuum. Who will take over once the current regime is out? Will it be the Muslim Brotherhood? Former IAEA Head Mohamad El-Baradei? I'm sure even George W. Bush would prefer that annoying bureaucrat to run the government in Cairo over the Islamist movement.

Time will let all the poisons slip out. Until then, and until the next ruler of the Nile ascends the political pyramids of Egypt, it's an interesting time in the history of the cradle of civilization.